Dezbateri pe teme fundamentale

Etichete: #<Tag:0x00007fa98647fd10> #<Tag:0x00007fa98647fbd0> #<Tag:0x00007fa98647f9f0> #<Tag:0x00007fa98647f8b0>


Dupa datele de pana acum, 1.1420 prima oprire si 1.1620 primul TP saptamana viitoare.

The inability to sustain a rebound in purchases casts doubts on how soon Federal Reserve policy makers will be able to raise interest rates. Central bankers need to be convinced that growth is gaining momentum before risking an increase in borrowing costs that could further slow the consumer spending that accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy.

U.S. retail sales were flat in April as households cut back on purchases of automobiles and other big-ticket items, indicating the economy was struggling to rebound strongly after barely growing in the first quarter.

The weak retail sales report from the Commerce Department, and other data on Wednesday showing the 10th straight month of declining import prices in April, suggest little urgency for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates.

“In terms of the Fed, the sluggish spending and economic growth performance will continue to argue for a later start to liftoff, essentially ruling out a mid-year hike,” said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.


1.1320 - 1.1560 urmatoarea miscare probabil ca de Marti.
Daca datele de azi vin foarte bune mergem mai jos mai ales ca avem Jen cu potential la deal.

12:25 (JP) BoJ said to view reserve rate cut as potential future easing option - US financial press **Reminder: - On May 11th, BoJ Gov Kuroda was quoted as reiterating that the BoJ was not considering lowering or cancelling interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) at the BoJ.- On Apr 1st Japan Ruling Party lawmaker Yamamoto stated that BOJ needed to further ease with options including purchases of wider range of assets and cutting interest paid on excess reserves - Source


Se leaga treaba. Buna analiza fundamentala.

Cu respect,


Mi-a placut rose-ul de la tine, de la intalnirea de acum 5 - 6 ani.

Mai dispui?


Ha ha, l-am baut frate ca era sa ma uit la el. Din 2 tone s-a vandut un sfert. Restul… hic, pe care l-am baut :smiley:


E, uite ca a venit c am prost. tot 1320 astept de Luni Marti ca vine Yelen Miercuri parca si sper sa dea cu Dolarul la valel. Daca ne ducem pe la 1270 cu atat mai bine de buy.


Lasa-l sa se duca la vale. Sunt pe sell. O sa vina vremea si de buy. Toate la timpul lor.
Ai grija la consumul de alcool. Trebuie sa fii cumpatat.


De la orice ma dau inapoi, dar de la un vin, nu! :smiley:


Nu prea vii de acasa. Crezi tu ca faci fata unei fete frumoase ?


Cu un spritz bun inainte si la trei, nu una :smiley:


Nu cred, ai mai imbatranit. Nu mai vezi bine, si mergi cocosat.


Mai avem un hop la 5. Cred ca stam in zona pana Miercuri la Fed ora 9 seara. Tot ce vine pana Miercuri e de range.
Doar ceva iesit din comun sa duca undeva.

PS cadere mare pe ultima de azi. 1.5 intra in carti mai devreme doar ca e Vineri azi asa ca stau pe bara.


1.1320 ramane Suport ferm pentru 1.5
Facand totalul stirilor de azi plus ceea ce urmeaza, range iese din discutie. Azi inchidem pozitiv pe Euro si de Luni tot in sus.

With US data continuing to disappoint, the minutes of the April FOMC meeting (Wed) will be scoured for signs of dispersion in individual policymakers’ forward-looking assessments. But with the Committee as a whole in data-dependent mode, a strong steer on Fed liftoff timing seems unlikely to be forthcoming.

One notable source of improvement in the external backdrop is the easing in the dollar effective exchange rate,by over 6% since its peak in mid-March. This fading of the dollar’s recent strength should help limit falls in import prices in the months to come, and their drag on overall inflation.

“Here, CPI data (Fri) are expected to show a slight easing of the annual headline rate to -0.2% in April, despite firmer oil prices, as well as a slowing in the ‘core’ rate to 1.7%. While such readings will not give the Fed the confidence they need to move towards tightening policy, official anxieties that the US is entering a deflationary spiral likewise remain limited.” said Lloyds Bank


1.1680 devine target pentru Joi. 1.1560 este intermediar acum.

Pe valuri numarand, daca suntem in 5 atunci se poate extinde cat vor muschii lui doar ca valul 4 nu arata corect ca e prea scurt asa ca merg pe ideea ca suntem in 3 din 3 si pe la 1.1680 ar putea incepe valul 4 undeva intre 1 si 10 Iunie in varianta conservatoare In varianta agresiva finalul trendului sau varful lui 3 ar trebui sa fie la 1.2000 pe undeva spre 1 10 cu 5 nefinalizat. Merg mai mult ca suntem in 3 din 3 pentru ca 4 nu se vede, e prea scurt doar ABC.


There were two April US economic reports with disappointing numbers but positive revisions to the March data: advance retail sales and industrial production. Retails sales were pretty weak, with total sales and the control group (which feeds into the GDP reading) unchanged, widely missing expectations. Meanwhile, the March headline sales figure was revised from 0.9% to 1.1% and the control was revised from 0.3% to 0.5%. Sales in April were curbed by declines in big-ticket receipts such as autos, furniture, electronics and appliances. The Atlanta Fed lowered its GDPnow rolling Q2 GDP forecast to 0.7% from 0.8% in the wake of the retail sales data. Likewise, industrial production was lower than expected, but the March report was raised to -0.3% from -0.6%. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday also disappointed, registering its lowest reading since October and showed inflation expectations are rising.

The doves were out for the Fed this week with Dudley and Williams reiterating data dependence and cautioning again that global markets are sure to have some reaction when Fed rate lift off occurs. Williams also said he agrees with the sentiment expressed by Chair Yellen that equity valuations are quite high.

Negotiations between Greece and its European creditors went nowhere again this week. On Tuesday, Greece made its latest debt payment to the IMF on time, however Athens used €650M in funds from its own IMF account to help meet the €750M obligation, underlining the depth of the nation’s cash crunch. First quarter GDP data revealed that the economy has already returned to recession. Finance Minister Varoufakis stepped up his war of words with Eurozone policymakers, saying he wished his country still had the drachma and warning he would not sign any bailout plan that would send his country into a “death spiral.”

A return to GDP growth in France and Italy in Q1 helped boost eurozone economic growth in Q1 to +0.4% over the prior quarter and +1.0% on an annualized basis, its best rate in years. As of Q1, all the major eurozone economies are growing, cementing hopes for a real economic recovery. The caveat was Germany, where Q1 GDP was only +0.3% q/q, missing expectations for +0.7% growth. In the UK, the Bank of England cut its 2015 growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.5%, and 2016 from 2.9% to 2.6%, citing higher interest rates, stronger GBP and weaker productivity. EUR/USD took another leg up on the better data, rising from lows of 1.1140 to test three-month highs around 1.1450 on both Thursday and Friday. Traders note that after trading down five big figures from 1.1000 to 1.0500 in the first two months of the year, EUR/USD is making measured moves upward to test five big figures up from 1.000.


De ce ieri la 5 seara am trecut din predictie range pentru strong up pe Euro.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index for May plunged to 88.6, the lowest since October, from 95.9 the prior month. It was weaker than even the lowest estimate of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Another report showed factory production stalled in April.
News that the world’s largest economy sputtered last quarter, combined with uneven employment gains, shook households this month, raising concerns that spending will be slow to pick up. A strong dollar and weak oil prices also are holding back manufacturing, further denting the likelihood of a quick rebound in the rate of expansion.


Folosesti si elliot in previziunile tale? Sau folosesti analiza tehnica doar pentru intrari si iesiri?


Elliot e doar de fun. Tehnic iau doar nivele orizontale si multe alte paternuri dar care nu tin de analiza tehnica clasica cu fibo sau medii mobile sau mai stiu eu ce divergente. De astea m am convins ca nu se prind de mine.

Exista o medie generala a miscarii de impuls si de corectie pentru fiecare pereche in parte in corelare cu valorile din date. Daca vin mult sub asteptari cum a fost Vineri miscarea e mai agresiva de cat media iar media intraday pe euro e in jur de 60 70 de pips, deci euro putea sa se duca peste medie pana la un moment in viitor care se coreleaza in cazul asta cu inchiderea Londra. Miscarea de impuls pe stire s a terminat odata cu out Londra si pentru ca ceea ce urmeaza pe stiri pana Miercuri, pe medie, este negativ pe Dolar si cumulat cu ce a fost Vineri, nu vedeam de ce cei care au vandut Dolari sa-si inchida tranzactiile, banuiam ca vor ramane in piata pentru mai mult si asa a si fost.
Deci tehnic Elliot e bun doar de o oarecare confirmare in a doua faza pentru ca orice impuls se poate extinde mai mult decat te astepti sau cat masori si deci nu poti sa intri pe corectie decat cu SL mare mare sau pe impuls pentru ca nu stiu daca nu cumva e impuls terminal. Sunt cateva paternuri care le urmaresc ABC sau ABCD si subdiviziunile din fiecare val dar decizia de intrare e din stiri si tot ele dau si locul si ora adica nivelul de la care se poate pleca intr o directie si ora cand incepe.

Sunt paternuri in piata care se respecta mereu cum ar fi corectiile la nivelele unde au fost bursele anterior sau mutarea pretului catre zone unde exipra optiuni. Astea ma incurca cel mai tare pentru ca sunt miscari cu scop altul de cat cel fundamental. Se duce pretul acolo pentru a fi cat mai avantajos pentru ceea ce urmeaza sau, pentru a incasa premiul din optiuni grase un fel de du’ euro sus ca sa am eu de unde sa vand, c-am asa ceva. E, aici urmaresc sa prind spilul, sa-mi dau seama din timp ce fel de miscare este.

Deci, tehnic vorbind, privesc la dreapta cand analizez un chart si nu la stanga pentru ca stanga nu spune ce urmeaza ci ceea ce e in dreapta spune directia probabila. Tot ce a fost poate fi doar analizat si sa combini cu ceea ce urmeaza. Doar trecutul singur e inutil. Oricand poate aparea ceva neasteptat si ceea ce a spus trecutul nu mai conteaza.

Pare hilar la prima vedere cand spun ca ma uit pe chart la dreapta, adica dupa pretul actual, unde nu se vede nimic, dar daca te gandesti putin ai sa vezi ca poti sa ti imaginezi c-am ce ar putea sa fie daca te uiti la datele ce urmeaza si la impactul lor cu ce a fost in trecut.

Intr-un cuvant - Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Mai jos e o privire tehnica la schimbarea directiei de care ma tin pana vedem ceva asemanator dar invers.


Poate am bafta dar tocmai ce am intrat in NY Cut. :smiley:


Referitor la ce spuneai ca trecutul nu iti spune ce urmeaza, in mare parte probabil asa este… dar… in currency wars Rickards abordeaza la un moment dat subiectul probabilitatilor si a naturii pietelor si mentioneaza ca geniul matematician Mandelbrot a indicat ca pretul viitor al pietelor nu este independent de trecut.

Probabil marea diferenta dintre institutiile financiare si traderii retail este ca ele au echipe de zeci poate chiar 100 de oameni cu doctorate in matematica, statistica etc. care analizeaza trecutul nu cu ochii pe grafic cum facem noi, ci cu algoritmi suficient de sofisticati. Noi mergem la lupta cu prashtia intr-o batalie de drone si nave zburatoare cu arme laser :slight_smile: adevar pe care nu se insista in lumea retail ca sa nu se descurajeze cei 90% de visatori care vor continua sa piarda bani.

Printre altele tot din Rickards:

“The problem with the Nobel prize winning theories based on the bell curve is that empirical evidence shows that they do not correspond to the real world of the markets and human behavior. Based on an enormous body of statistical and social science research, it is clear that markets are not efficient, and that price movements are not random.”

Treaba cu (ne)eficienta pietelor mi s-a parut importanta, mai ales cand vorbim de analiza fundamentala, pentru ca indica faptul ca pretul nu este tot timpul unde ar trebui sa fie din punct de vedere fundamental, ci este acolo unde il duc perceptile si asteptarile participantilor din piata, influentate de toti factorii prezenti, dar si de propriile teorii si analize (mentale/manuale sau computerizate).